The US Dollar Index (DXY) — which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies — closed last week at 104.82, maintaining its position in the upper half of the 2025 trading range.
**Upcoming catalysts:**
- **Monday:** Fed speakers (Waller, Bowman)
- **Wednesday:** US CPI (June, forecast: 3.3% YoY headline)
- **Thursday:** US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims
- **Friday:** University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
**Bullish scenario for USD:**
CPI comes in above 3.4% — markets reprice first Fed cut to December → DXY could push above 105.50, targeting 106.20.
**Bearish scenario for USD:**
CPI falls below 3.1% — rate cut bets for September fully restored → DXY breaks support at 104.20, targeting 103.50.
**Key technical levels:**
- Resistance: 105.20, 105.80, 106.50
- Support: 104.20 (50-day MA), 103.80, 103.00
**GCC relevance:**
UAE AED and Saudi SAR are pegged to the USD, meaning DXY movements affect regional import costs, inflation, and competitiveness for GCC exporters.
*Risk Warning: Forex analysis is provided for educational purposes only.*